Published: Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Chair's Statement: Ireland's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2023 to 2050

Statement by the Chair of the Climate Change Advisory Council following the publication of Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2023 to 2050

Date: 28 May 2024

The Chair of the Climate Change Advisory Council warns that Ireland is very likely to miss both its first and second carbon budget. It is also very likely Ireland will not comply with its European obligations leading to expensive penalties or further purchases of emissions allocations from other EU Member States. 

The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2023 to 2050 published by the EPA today exposes the challenge that Ireland faces in keeping emissions within the carbon budgets[1] adopted by the Oireachtas.

Cumulative emissions for the first carbon budget are now expected to exceed the 295 Mt CO₂ eq limit by 19 Mt CO₂eq in the most optimistic scenario. Significant and immediate additional efforts will be required in 2024 and 2025 to avoid squeezing[2] the second carbon budget even more.

While there is increasing evidence of actions being taken by households, businesses and communities, the Government’s planned actions must be supplemented and accelerated and fully delivered across all sectors. A critical aspect of that delivery is ending our dependence on fossil fuels as quickly as possible which is not only essential for the climate but is also good for our health, our security, the environment and our pockets.

Greater efforts are required across all sectors to remain within their sectoral emissions ceilings. It is critical that the Departments* responsible publish detailed annual emissions trajectories setting out how they will remain within the sectoral emissions ceilings given the scale of the challenge that today’s projections set out. Delivery rates of the most impactful actions under the Climate Action Plan simply must improve.  

We have the technology to reduce emissions including greater energy efficiency through retrofits; high efficiency heat pumps to heat out homes; sustainable electricity from wind and solar; reduced fertilizer volumes and a switch to modern protected urea; and electric cars and vans. However, take-up of these technologies is still too low and too slow.

Dedicated and focused communications campaigns are required to provide accurate information and assurance to people as to the availability, benefit and impact of the adoption of these measures.

I call on Government to ensure each of these interventions are supported to the maximum extent by way of demonstration of political leadership and sufficient resourcing.

Notes to Editors

*Responsible Departments are set out in Table 6.1 of Climate Action Plan 2024, reproduced below

Table 6.1 – Proposed Revisions to the Sectoral Emissions Ceiling Ministerial Accountability Framework

Sector	Minister with Responsibility
Electricity	Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications
Industry	Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment
Residential Buildings	Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications
Commercial Buildings	Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment
Public Sector Buildings (including 2030 51% reduction target)	Individual Sectoral Ministers (e.g., Minister for Health - hospitals; Minister for Education – schools, etc.)
Transport	Minister for Transport
Agriculture	Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine
LULUCF	Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, coordinating with the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage
Other (F-Gases, Waste & Petroleum Refining)	Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications

 

[1] Carbon budget for period 2021-2025 no more than 295 Mt CO₂ eq; Carbon budget for period 2026-2030 no more than 200 Mt CO₂ eq

[2] In the event of eventual emissions exceeding the carbon budget for 2021-2025 the carbon budget for the period 2026-2030 will be reduced by the amount of that exceedance. 

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